A projection by Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria shows that ODM chief Raila Odinga would beat Deputy President William Ruto hands down in a two-horse race.
Kuria, once an insider in Ruto’s camp, said without ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Wiper counterpart Kalonzo Musyoka on the ballot, Raila would win the presidential race by 52.28 per cent.
This translates to about 8.12 million votes.
Ruto will come second with 47.72 per cent, translating to about 7.42 million votes.
According to the projections, Ruto would beat Raila in Mount Kenya, Northeastern, Turkana and Kalenjin-Rift Valley.
Raila, on the other hand, would lead in Nairobi, Maasailand, Kisii, Ukambani, Nyanza and Western.
Interestingly, Kuria predicts the 2022protagonists would equally share the coastal vote bloc, a region traditionally believed to be Raila’s stronghold.
However, should Mudavadi and Kalonzo be on the ballot, Kuria said there would be a run-off with Ruto leading with 40.97 per cent.
Under this scenario, Raila will come second with 36.84 per cent of the votes followed by Mudavadi and Kalonzo at 12.54 per cent and 9.65 per cent respectively.
This means that Mudavadi and Kalonzo would have a huge influence on the direction of the 2022 contest.
According to Kuria’s research, there will be 15.549 million valid votes, meaning that over 3.5 million voters will not cast their votes, going by the 2017 registered voters.
In an interview with the Star, Kuria said he conducted his research in the last one month using his rich experience in statistics.
“Having been Mwaki Kibaki’s statistician in 2007 and Uhuru’s man in charge of numbers in 2013 and 2017, I won’t get it wrong,” Kuria told the Star on Wednesday.
He went on, “ I have used the registered voters in 2017 to project the 2022 turnout.”
In the projections by the Chama Cha Kazi party leader, Ruto will score 3.15 million votes (70 per cent) in Mount Kenya, while Raila will get 1.35 million votes (30 per cent).
Kuria said about 4.5 million Mt Kenya voters will turn out to vote (about 84.91 per cent) out of the 5.3 million registered voters.
This means that nearly 800,000 voters in Mount Kenya will not vote.
Projecting how Ruto and Raila will share the votes in the capital city, Kuria predicts that Raila will lead in Nairobi with 1.1 million votes (65.87 per cent) of the 1.67 million votes that are likely to be cast.
Ruto will garner 570,000 votes in the capital, registering 34.13 per cent.
There are 2.25 million registered voters in the capital city.
In Ruto’s Kalenjin nation, Kuria predicts that there will be a voter turnout of 1.7 million (81.5 per cent) of the total 2.086 million.
Of this, Ruto will get 1.2 million votes (70.59 per cent), while Raila will get 500,000 votes, representing 29.41 per cent.
In Northeastern region, Ruto will beat Raila with 368,000 votes (65.71 per cent) against Raila’s 192,000 votes (34.29 per cent).
Turning to the coastal region, Kuria projects a 50-50 battle between Raila and Ruto, each scoring 550,000 votes of the total 1.7 million registered voters.
In Western Kenya, Raila will beat Ruto with 1.2 million votes (68.57 per cent) against 550,000 votes (31.43 per cent) of the 2.25 million registered voters in the region.
Raila is projected to sweep in Luo Nyanza with 1.5 million votes (93.75 per cent) against Ruto’s 100,000 votes (6.25 per cent) of the total registered voters of 1.9 million people.
In Ukambani, which has 1.7 million registered voters, Raila will get 700,000 million votes (58.33 per cent), while Ruto will manage 500,000 million (41.67 per cent) of the 1.2 million people who will turn out.
In Turkana with 191,000 registered, 137,000 voters will turn out to vote, out of which Ruto will lead with 100,000 votes (72.99 per cent) against Raila’s 37,000 votes (27.01 per cent).
In Maasailand of the 835,000 registered voters, there will be a turnout of 700,000 voters with Raila projected to lead with 500,000 votes (71.43 per cent) against Ruto’s 200,000 votes (28.57 per cent).
Looking at the Gusii community of 825,000 voters, there will be a turnout of 632,000 voters. Out of this number, Raila will garner 500,000 votes (79.11 per cent) against Ruto’s 132,000 votes (20.99 per cent).
In case of a four-horse race, Kuria projects that Kalonzo would eat into Raila’s votes in Nairobi by 300,000 votes while Mudavadi will get 200,000 votes.
Kalonzo would sweep the 1.2 million Ukambani votes while Mudavadi would get all the votes that will be cast by the Luyha nation.
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